Diary of A Rural Manager !<script async='async' data-ad-client='ca-pub-2911943216841049' src='https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js'></script>

At present, developed countries don’t have the demographics to support their labor market and will need to depend on the rest of the world. India has a working population of 400.7 million with a thriving education sector. India’s demographic dividend can be leveraged to meet the requirements of developed countries across diverse sectors. For the last 30 years or so, India’s youth have been part of the workforce across the Middle East, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

Yet the proportion of formally skilled workers in India is extremely low, at 4.69% of the total workforce, compared to 24% in China, 52% in the US, 68% in the UK, 75% in Germany, 80% in Japan, and 96% in South Korea. Hence, the skills ecosystem should not only cater to the existing Indian industry requirements but should have a definite room for the international placement of the Indian workforce. Changing the employment landscape post-COVID-19 has led to a rise in both onsite and remote work.

The nearest European country is more than 4300 km away from India. This distance from Europe is one reason why a significant proportion of migration from India takes place to countries like the UAE, Malaysia, etc.

The Indian government has taken notable initiatives including MoUs with developed economies on labor mobility, e-Migrate, Indian Community Welfare Fund, Pravasi Bharatiya Sahayata Kendras, and Pre-Departure Orientation Programmes. The proposed Emigration Bill, 2021 will constitute the core of enabling framework for institutional support.

Suggestions for International Placement

1. NSDC is making efforts to align and recognize the Indian Occupational Qualifications Training and Certification at the destination countries. This is a long-term effort to match NSQF-level corresponding job roles in both countries. A unified system for formalizing a variety of skills acquired through both formal and informal learning should also be mapped to the European Qualification Framework (EQF).

2. The better approach will be creating assessment and certification centers in accordance with standards recognition of awarding bodies of destination countries. Presently, only Singapore has testing centers in India where candidates interested in migrating to the nation can get their applications processed and skills veriﬁed locally instead of ﬂying to Singapore for the attestation and recognition of skills.

2. There must be the creation of the TVET (technical and vocational education and training) programs with an Indian partner for the implementation and a foreign entity as a knowledge partner. This will ensure the quality of the curriculum with a lower cost of operations. The pricing pressure on such TVET programs will be huge as Indian universities are offering similar courses in vocational studies. TVET program must ensure good placement as the cost incurred by the candidates must be recoverable within 2-3 years post the course completion.

3. Any TVET program offering global certification to the candidates must lead a clear path to global exposure. This can be done either through apprenticeship or an opportunity to study/upskill in the destination countries.

4. Poor knowledge of the language of the destination countries creates a major gap between the aspiration of youth and the reality on the ground. Skill development programs and language training programs must be linked to the formal education system through a unified skills and education qualification framework. This will change the negative public perception of TVET courses.

5. JIM Japan India Institute for Manufacturing - Japanese companies in India are also supporting young Indian talent in acquiring the concepts and skills of Japanese manufacturing by using existing factories and facilities to develop future shop floor leaders. Such an arrangement can be extended with MNCs operating in diverse sectors.

6. Migration of students to study in destination countries can help build skills that may otherwise be difficult to acquire in India. The mobility of students should be promoted and pathways must be explored for their stay as a workforce in destination countries.

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Direct Benefit Transfer - G2C in India

India is among the top three global economies in the number of digital consumers. With 560 million internet subscriptions in 2018, up from 238.71 million in 2013, India is the second-largest internet subscriptions market in the world. [1]

The Government of India runs large-scale benefits and subsidy programs for its citizens. To ensure accurate targeting of the beneficiaries, digital verification to eliminate duplicates, ghost recipients, and fraud. Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) was started on 1st January 2013. DBT is utilized to eliminate losses and inefficiencies in the disbursement of benefits and subsidies across wages, food, fertilizer, cooking gas, power, and other areas. Direct Benefit Transfer is already showing the changing landscape of the government-to-citizen (G2C) payments system.

Requirements

To further expand the reach of such digital payment programs, banking infrastructure needs to be enhanced by ensuring sufficient bank branches, banking correspondents, the post office, and Common Services Centres to make it easier for citizens to access payments to them.
Rural customers typically maintain low bank balances, are geographically spread out, and have low transaction volumes. Given the low levels of women's digital engagement, easy access to banking infrastructure for cash in-cash out services remains a necessary condition to enable. However, the private banking correspondent business model has chronically suffered from low profitability and a high level of agent attrition on account of unattractive remuneration.

There has been an attempt made by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in the past for DBT readiness of states/UTs to pursue G2C and government to bank/business solutions through the use of ICT for effecting cashless in-kind transfers. (DBT_Presentation_NCAER (dbtbharat.gov.in).

Pros

DBT eliminates inordinate delays, multiple channels & paperwork involved in the existing system.
This is a better way to help the poor than providing them under-priced grain, fuel, and essential public services. A poor household with cash via DBT can access and choose a private-sector provider and not just be dependent on a monopolistic government provider.
Targeting the poorest has the obvious advantage since the marginal value of money is highest since they have the least money.
The per-person costs of delivering transfers have fallen rapidly in many places due to advances in last-mile digital payment infrastructure.

Cons

The DBT model has been seen as a substitute for state action. The state has to build implementation capacity and grievance redressal mechanisms as many beneficiaries are used to interacting with frontline workers or local government officials for scheme-related grievances.
While it may not be mandatory to link an Aadhaar Card with a bank account, for now, it appears that there is no escaping the process. Aadhaar seeding is necessitated for receiving Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT). This protocol followed by government officials has led to an increase in exclusion errors, denying genuine beneficiaries their entitlements.
DBT system has no mechanism to strengthen transparency and accountability at the local level. Technical errors such as age, spelling, and a host of other data points plague the system. People with incorrect names, and mismatching dates of birth, end up unable to avail of any welfare scheme that they are otherwise eligible for.
There has been an assumption that the economy will become burdened with these schemes leading to inflation and price distortion. Data again does not support this argument as it showed better economic participation and thus a net boost to the local economies where the schemes were implemented. DBT can be indexed to adjust with inflation.
Complexity increases if Aadhaar is seeded in multiple bank accounts of beneficiaries. There are several cases like the money transferred to account holders died a few years back, and money could not get transferred due to the closure of accounts which are issues to be resolved with NPCI and banks.

Conclusion

DBT is no magic bullet as the reduction of poverty in India requires much more than solutions such as direct cash transfers. DBT is techno-enabled, transformational effort to fix the delivery system that is broken with corruption. Several studies have investigated the returns to investing in payments infrastructure relating to DBT and found them to be ‘large and positive’. In the new development, e-RUPI is launched by GoI to bring the ease and simplicity of UPI to the social security platform of DBT.

References:

1. Indian telecom services performance indicators, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, as of December 2013, September 2018, and March 2018; Analysys Mason, as of January 09, 2019.

Sunday, May 23, 2021

Equity Investment - Learning

“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” - Warren Buffett

Experience is a bad teacher as it gives the test before lessons. I have invested last year amid the SENSEX meltdown (Portfolio in Aug 2020) and (My Investment Universe). The wealth was created in the bear market (60% upsurge). I have tried to document personal decisions and convictions from the experience in the equity market. Any stock market is driven by herd mentality and kept afloat by confidence. The system is inherently a closed-feedback loop. Hence, sharing experiences matters.

My investment philosophy is really simple: invest in great businesses. My diligence is also focused on finding the sources of the competitive advantages of these companies, their track record of dealing with technological disruptions, and the wisdom of their capital allocation decisions.

Lessons

1. The long-term target is to own 10 to 20 stocks in the portfolio. I have trimmed down the portfolio from 34 to 21 stocks. No individual stocks make up over 15% of my portfolio. Good business with a moat is the primary focus of investment thesis and then cheap valuation.

2. I have purchased only 70 shares of Adani Gas during April 2020. Adani Gas has a massive debt since it is in the expansion phase. The stock skyrocketed to 10X. Too fast growth is always suspicious and always sucks the money out of the retail investors! Hence, I am sitting on the onetime decision and pondering over the investment thesis.

3. I couldn't understand the digital transformation wave in the IT industry last year. I sold Sonata Software and TCS during their surge in July 2020. Wrong move. Platform-based business models will pave the way forward for the future. Digital Revenue share is an important parameter in the digital transformation story to be tracked for the retail investors. The unicorn will emerge in the sectors that are underserved in terms of technology. The larger risk lies at the other end: giving up on a good business in pursuit of a perfect one.

4. ITC: Genuinely undervalued or value trap? I assume it's a value trap. I am not investing in Ciggarate and Liquor stocks. Hence, exited from ITC shares.

5. Don't risk on the back of borrowed conviction. I invested in Borosil Ltd under the assumption of the vaccine story. I was caught in the sucker rally and suffered the loss after the bounce fizzled out. Borrowed conviction ends up with misplaced confidence in flawed methods, throwing our judgment into a downward spiral.

6. I took an exit from the FMCG sectors. There is tremendous growth in the private labels and penetration has been achieved in the urban and rural market. FMCG companies have longevity about them but they are also reporting a decline in volume growth and focusing on value growth. I had purchased Nestle and Britannia at the peak of the valuation last year. Yet, I have exited from them because of a change in the investment thesis.

7. Businesses shouldn't be much prone to regulatory changes and if that happens we must read their impact on the business. Understanding the business is the most important aspect of investing. I invested in City Union Bank without an understanding of the banking sector. The financial loss eventually happens even when the market was under-recovery. Any financial institution that has SMEs as lenders suffer during a major recession due to market consolidation. I didn't apply this insight despite knowing the economics behind that I suffered from the ‘optimism bias’ and overestimate my likelihood of experiencing good events and underestimate the likelihood of things going bad. I took an exit from CUB stock with minor losses. The important thing is to keep your winners & sell your losers.

8. I have a fair share of miscalculated entry and exit time. Data overload creates exaggerations in sentiments and patience gives away. I took an exit from Pfizer too early without guessing 2nd wave. Not reacting to the first piece of information that hits you is an asset and a highly undervalued one. A more complete picture, better information, and newer perspectives emerge with time, and holding one’s horses can end up being very profitable. I had exited from Vinati Organics, Info Edge, ITC, and Ashok Leyland too early with no gain despite buying them at a low valuation.

9. CDMO and CRMAS are going to be such a big investment opportunity for India in the next decade. Investors have now the opportunity to take a long-term position in Pharma and Biotechnology sector innovators. I have allocated 30-35% of the capital in the sector.

10. There is a huge boom happening in the Chemical sector but it is outside my circle of competence, Hence, I am not invested in them. The circle of competence can be expanded gradually by learning from people that have different interests and also are into investing.

A website like Screener helped in understanding numbers. Thanks to Sajal Kapoor for insightful tweets, SOIC- School of Intrinsic Compounding for astounding good business analysis, IIC Alpha Series (Free Videos of sectoral analysis), Saplings Capital for undervalued tweets, and Marcellus PMS for sharing the investment thesis in the large caps. The emphasis on reading annual reports and earnings call transcript brings CCCF (conceptual clarity, contextual familiarity). The most important lesson is - never knowingly misguide someone and block off a few hours each week in your calendar for relevant reading. Whilst there will be difficulties along the way, but wealth can only be created with patience in equity markets. Patience is backed by your conviction & your conviction (Allocation)is backed up by your understanding of the business.

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